Tasmanian state election, 2014
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2010 ←
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On or before 17 May 2014
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The next Tasmanian state election is scheduled to be held on or before 17 May 2014 to elect all 25 members to the House of Assembly. The 16-year incumbent Labor government, currently led by the Premier of Tasmania Lara Giddings, will attempt to win a fifth consecutive term against the Liberal opposition, led by Opposition Leader Will Hodgman. Also contesting the election will be the Greens, currently led by Nick McKim.
The House of Assembly uses the proportional Hare-Clark system to elect 25 members in five constituencies electing five members each. Upper house elections in the 15-seat single-member district Legislative Council use full-preference instant-runoff voting, with election dates staggered and conducted separately from lower house state elections. The election will be conducted by the Tasmanian Electoral Commission.
Under section 23 of the Constitution Act 1934, the House of Assembly expires four years from the return of the writs for its election, in this case 7 April 2010.[1] The Governor must issue writs of election between five and ten days thereafter[2] naming a polling day on a Saturday between 15 and 30 days after issuance of the writ,[3] making the last possible date 17 May 2014.
Background [edit]
The results from the previous election saw a tie between the two major parties, who both won ten seats. The Greens, led by Nick McKim, won five seats and held the balance of power. The outcome in all five multimember seats was two Labor, two Liberal, and one Green. Governor Peter Underwood commissioned David Bartlett to form a government, detailing several reasons for his decision including incumbency and a higher chance of stability.[4] The Liberal Party have tabled motions of no-confidence in parliament against the Labor government, but these have been unsuccessful.[5]
The Bartlett cabinet was sworn in on 13 April 2010, with Bartlett as Premier and Lara Giddings as Deputy Premier.[6] On 24 January 2011, Bartlett stood down from the premiership to be replaced by Giddings who was elected unopposed as Tasmania's first female Premier.[7][8]
Polling [edit]
Polling is regularly conducted for Tasmanian state politics by Enterprise Marketing and Research Services (EMRS). Unlike other pollsters, EMRS don't "push" their respondents for an answer on the first request, contributing to the large "undecided" percentage. The sample size for each poll is 1,000 Tasmanian voters.[9]
House of Assembly (lower house) polling
|
Political parties |
|
ALP |
Lib |
Grn |
Ind |
Undecided |
| May 2013 |
19% |
40% |
9% |
2% |
30% |
| Feb 2013 |
17% |
46% |
15% |
3% |
20% |
| Nov 2012 |
20% |
43% |
12% |
2% |
24% |
| Aug 2012 |
18% |
38% |
17% |
2% |
25% |
| May 2012 |
17% |
38% |
17% |
4% |
25% |
| Feb 2012 |
19% |
39% |
14% |
3% |
25% |
| Nov 2011 |
17% |
42% |
15% |
2% |
24% |
| Aug 2011 |
16% |
44% |
14% |
4% |
22% |
| May 2011 |
19% |
38% |
17% |
4% |
22% |
| Feb 2011 |
20% |
36% |
20% |
2% |
23% |
| Nov 2010 |
23% |
35% |
20% |
3% |
19% |
| Aug 2010 |
29% |
30% |
23% |
3% |
14% |
| May 2010 |
23% |
38% |
24% |
3% |
12% |
| 2010 election |
36.9% |
39.0% |
21.6% |
2.5% |
– |
| Feb 2010 |
23% |
30% |
22% |
2% |
23% |
| Polling conducted by EMRS. |
Preferred Premier polling^
|
Labor
Giddings |
Liberal
Hodgman |
Green
McKim |
| May 2013 |
25% |
46% |
10% |
| Feb 2013 |
24% |
46% |
13% |
| Nov 2012 |
25% |
47% |
11% |
| Aug 2012 |
22% |
45% |
15% |
| May 2012 |
21% |
43% |
17% |
| Feb 2012 |
24% |
44% |
15% |
| Nov 2011 |
19% |
48% |
14% |
| Aug 2011 |
19% |
52% |
13% |
| May 2011 |
22% |
42% |
18% |
| Feb 2011 |
27% |
38% |
16% |
| Nov 2010 |
23%1 |
39% |
21% |
| Aug 2010 |
27%1 |
34% |
22% |
| May 2010 |
26%1 |
40% |
23% |
| 2010 election |
– |
– |
– |
| Feb 2010 |
29%1 |
34% |
21% |
Polling conducted by EMRS.
^ Remainder were "uncommitted".
1 David Bartlett. |
External links [edit]
References [edit]
- ^ "Parliamentary Elections, 2007–2010". Tasmanian Electoral Commission.
- ^ Electoral Act 2004, section 63.
- ^ Electoral Act 2004, section 70.
- ^ Hon Peter Underwood AC (9 April 2010). "The reasons of the Governor of Tasmania for the commissioning of the Honourable David Bartlett to form a government following the 2010 House of Assembly Election" (doc). Retrieved 2 December 2010.
- ^ Labor, Greens defeat 'no confidence' move, ABC News, 5 May 2010.
- ^ Media ban as Bartlett government sworn in, ABC News, 13 April 2010.
- ^ "Bartlett confirms resignation on Facebook". Abc.net.au. 23 January 2011. Retrieved 1 February 2012.
- ^ "Tasmanian premier to resign". Smh.com.au. Retrieved 1 February 2012.
- ^ [1], EMRS, May 2012.
